Adkins Capital Management LLC
Institutional Housing Analysis
Quantitative Real Estate Engine · Monte Carlo · DCF Waterfall
● FRED FEED: Live
6.38%
30YR FIXED AVG
Module 1 — Property Parameters
Base for all equity + appreciation calculations.
<20% triggers PMI. Auto-cancels at 78% LTV per HOPA.
Live from FRED/Freddie Mac. Editable for scenario testing.
US national avg ≈ 1.07%. Varies by county.
Annual HOA dues, condo fees, etc.
Rule of thumb: 1-2% of home value per year.
Module 2 — Rent & Market Comparables
What you'd pay to rent a comparable property.
Historical avg: 3-4%. CPI shelter component.
National avg ≈ $180-$350/yr.
Module 3 — Monte Carlo Distribution Parameters
Case-Shiller long-run real HPA avg ≈ 1-2%. Nominal ≈ 3-4%.
Historical annual volatility of US home prices.
S&P 500 nominal annual avg, 1928-2024 ≈ 9.8-10.2%.
S&P 500 historical annual std dev ≈ 15-18%.
Rate used to discount future cash flows to PV.
Realtor commission + title + transfer tax. Avg US ≈ 6-8%.
Executive Summary
Monte Carlo Simulation — Wealth Distribution
Buy vs Rent — Percentile Outcomes
DCF Waterfall — Year-by-Year Cash Flow
| Year | Mortgage P&I | Property Tax | Maintenance | HOA | Total Own Cost | Rent Cost | Net Diff | Equity |
|---|
Sensitivity Matrix — Buy vs Rent by Appreciation & Mortgage Rate